Early in 2017, Stuff reported that annual e-bikes sales were forecast to increase to 20,000 for the year.  Total sales aren’t tracked, but evidence from the streets of Auckland to the trails of Otago is that e-bikes are transforming our view of cycling, and extending the ‘first and last kilometre’ to the first and last ‘few kilometres or so’. Multi-modal infrastructure hubs need to provide for pedestrian, cyclist and e-bike access that is safe, attractive and secure.  Our current approach to ‘park and ride’ or ‘kiss and ride’ does not create safe zones for these users.  E-bikes and other small personal mobility devices have the ability to overcome the first and last kilometre challenge; we need to make them part of the solution.

And for those who are loath to give up the comfort of the automobile, there is the possibility of an Autonomous Vehicle (AV) future.

Once AVs achieve ‘Level 5’ automation, or self-driving capability, innovators speak of the possibly of a future where carparks and kerbs are no longer required.  Autonomous vehicle fleets will range the streets, available to order on an Uber-like service.

Individuals will no longer need to own cars.  We will AV-share our way to work.   We can order an AV to collect our children from school and take them to their school sports, pick them up and bring them home.  AVs will mean the time we spend in the car has a higher utility value.. 

This is one possible AV future.

Another is a future where there are more cars on the road – cars which bring us to work then travel home to park, before returning to collect us again at the end of the day.  Another car – maybe even one for each child – which does the school sport run.  Each of them privately owned and operating on a connected grid with other vehicles and infrastructure.  Perhaps we will be able to pay a preferential tariff to make sure we arrive at work and school on time. 

What is certain is that Central Government and local authorities will need to work together to make sure that the AV future we get is the sustainable and safer AV future we want.